The numbers behindthe Reality Check
Two kinds of number. Benchmarks published in 2026, each with its source and month. And thresholds with no 2026 data behind them, which are my stated position.
Only material published in 2026 is used. Rounds raised 2024 to 2025, US tech, total revenue. 2026 rounds are likely higher; no 2026 dataset yet shows by how much.
Places your ARR among companies that raised a Series A.
SVB State of the Markets H1 2026, via Carta, Feb 2026. Dataset. Rounds raised 2024 to 2025, US tech, total revenue at raise.
Places your ARR among companies that raised a seed round.
SVB State of the Markets H1 2026, via Carta, Feb 2026. Dataset. Rounds raised 2024 to 2025, US tech, total revenue at raise.
Your 12-month growth is read against this. Below the 25th percentile is a performance trigger for a Series A.
First Citizens State of the Markets H2 2026, Sep 2026. Dataset. Year-on-year revenue growth at raise, US VC-backed tech, rounds since 2024.
Context for seed founders. It does not trigger a risk, because seed growth varies too widely.
First Citizens State of the Markets H2 2026, Sep 2026. Dataset. Year-on-year revenue growth at raise, US VC-backed tech, rounds since 2024.
The share of last year's growth rate a company keeps the next year. The two trajectory paths use these.
Growth Unhinged (Kyle Poyar), with ChartMogul data, Apr 2026. Dataset. 700+ companies with at least $10K MRR that grew 20%+ in 2024; growth kept from 2024 to 2025.
Context for the concentration trigger.
Startup Fortune, Sep 2026. Opinion, no dataset. Venture-debt covenants often cap a single customer at 20 to 30% of revenue.
No 2026 data exists for these. They are judgement calls, stated so you can disagree with them.
It is never counted against you.
We use your own estimate instead and list it under "worth measuring next".
Dollars added in the last 6 months against the 6 before. Below 75% is a real slowdown; above 1.1x is acceleration. Percentages fall on their own as the base grows. Not flagged when ARR 6 months ago was under $100K.
A tiny base produces percentages no company sustains, so the starting rate is capped.
What you sold minus how much ARR grew. Usually customers who left or pay less, sometimes a counting difference, so it is shown as a check, not a verdict.
What you sold minus how much ARR grew. Below $250K of starting ARR, only the share of what you sold is used, because any loss looks huge against a small base.
Usually a different kind of buyer: a new segment, or a one-off.
Your largest deal of the last 12 months, taken out.
Your largest deal this year stands in for your largest customer.
A visibility trigger. It fires on contradictions, never on gaps.
Only checked when you track both win rate and opportunities.
Net new ARR a month your target needs, against what you added over the last 6 months.
Beyond the typical path, the extra new ARR your target needs is split evenly across pipeline volume, win rate and average deal size, each moving by the same multiple.
Only read when the plan needs more than you have shown.
Used only when you don't track qualified opportunities.
Think one of these is wrong for your business?
Either the threshold needs changing, or something about how you sell is unusual. Both are worth half an hour.
Book a fit callModel version 2.0.0. These values are read from the tool's own configuration, so this page cannot drift from what the tool uses. Run the Reality Check.